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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-24T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28321/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N45W20 to N35W55 which begins to lift-off, appearing to deflect northward, around 2023-12-24T12:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive brightening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery starting around 13:30Z. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T16:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T08:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-24T17:32Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 850
Longitude (deg): 002W
Latitude (deg): 39N
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: Based on at least three fits from two forecasters, erred towards ecliptic-intersecting solution within reason. Very volatile arrival time in model-space, probably because of extreme sensitivity to number of neighbouring CMEs. Deterministic solution only a very slight glance, but sig number of ensemble have varyinh degrees of 'hit'.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence and Kirk Waite.

Lead Time: 42.08 hour(s)
Difference: -3.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-25T14:21Z

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